Coalition: a trojan horse for Quebec

December 2008, featuring the minority Conservative government’s near defeat at the hands of the federal opposition parties, was likely one of the most interesting times in modern Canadian political history.
Governor General Michaelle Jean then suspended parliament at the request of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, making prorogue an instant media buzzword and throwing the Christmas holidays into the realm of political uncertainty.
After a long hiatus, parliament is now set to resume on Jan. 27, bringing with it the potential for a dramatically altered Canadian political landscape. The fate of Harper’s minority government hinges on the three opposition parties, which together hold a majority of the seats within the House of Commons.
When parliament resumes the opposition parties can choose to either support the new, dramatically modified Harper budget or vote against it, at which point the government will fall.
Were the latter scenario to occur, Jean would either have to call another federal election or ask the opposition parties to form a new government. Due to the fact that our federal election is still fresh on the minds of voters, a coalition government is indeed a plausible, yet negative scenario. Harper’s government falling would have serious repercussions throughout the country, but none of these shock waves will be felt stronger than here in Quebec.
Support levels for the coalition are higher in Quebec than anywhere else in Canada. On the surface, Quebec probably stands to gain the most from the implementation of a Liberal/NDP-led government. With the Bloc holding the balance of power in the House, the new government would have to entertain additional concessions to the province.
Quebec could potentially be on the receiving end of additional transfer payments from the federal government as a result of the Bloc’s participation in the coalition, as well as having a stronger vocal input in federal affairs.
However, any monetary concessions to Quebec will also serve to foster resentment from the rest of Canada’s taxpayers, who may already feel a negative stigma towards the province due to the sovereignty factor.
In terms of national unity, the Harper government’s collapse would also give the Bloc a vehicle in which to drive the idea of sovereignty further into the mindset of the Quebec masses. Essentially, if the opposition parties form a government, the Bloc Québécois would be handed a huge advantage in the promoting of their sovereigntist agenda. The logic would be: if the federal government can’t govern Canada with its own devices, than Quebec would be best served were it to be removed from this dysfunctional system.
The national unity front has already been weakened by the federal parties’ actions throughout this political crisis. Many of the gains made by the federal Conservatives in Quebec over the years have been diminished as a result of their handling of the possibility of a coalition. Sovereignty was until recently considered dormant in many circles, yet now it has been given a shot in the arm.
A coalition government would make for an even more tumultuous situation than what is currently occurring in our minority situation. Should the Liberals and NDP, in the pursuit of power, be willing to sign a reported 18-month agreement with a political entity whose primary objective is to achieve sovereignty for Quebec?
Even with a signed agreement, the amount of time this coalition would last is debatable. The Liberals, NDP and the Bloc are all left-leaners to various degrees, but with so many tangibles to consider, how long this potential alliance would actually pan out is anybody’s guess.
On Jan. 27 the House will either support or defeat the government. Should they choose to overthrow, than the only promising option would be to head back to the polls, no matter how annoying it may seem.