There are seven months between the end of the Super Bowl and the start of a new NFL season, yet football fans never seem to take time off. With February’s scouting combine, the beginning of free agency in March, and April’s NFL draft, die-hard fans always seem to find something to keep their minds at ease.
Many analysts believe that the combine, (in which college athletes hoping for a future in the NFL participate in speed, strength, agility, and position-specific drills) places too high a value on raw speed and strength as opposed to actual game performance.
Because of the combine, scouts have salivated at players who had both size and speed, declaring them to be future stars before they even play in an NFL game. Last year the notoriously bad-drafting Raiders reached for Maryland wide receiver Darius Heyward-Bey, passing on others such as Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin, largely because he ran the 40-yard-dash in just 4.3 seconds. Heyward-Bey finished the season with nine catches for 124 yards and one touchdown while Jeremy Maclin, who was drafted by the Eagles in the second round, exceeded those numbers in a single game.
Raiders owner/pseudo – general manager Al Davis isn’t the only one to have placed to high a value on combine numbers in recent years. In 2007, the Miami Dolphins ignored other needs in selecting the speedy Ted Ginn Jr. with the ninth pick. Though he has impressed as a kickoff returner he has yet to prove himself as a receiver, and you just don’t take returners ninth overall.
While players could see their stock jump with an excellent combine performance, inversely, others can be passed over due to poor combine efforts. Last year, All-Americans Shonn Greene, Malcolm Jenkins and Rey Maualuga all saw their stock drop due to poor 40-yard dash times. Florida cornerback Joe Haden is expected to see a similar fate this year.
So while certain writers such as ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio (who calls the combine the “underwear olympics”) condemn the combine as useless, it is merely a tiny piece of evaluating the athletes whose future career earnings largely depend on where they get drafted in April.
In the meantime, almost every university or college with draft-eligible talent will be holding a “pro day” at some point between now and early April. During these “pro days,” athletes are able to practice in a more comfortable environment, often doing drills along with former teammates. Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford, both Heisman-winning quarterbacks, elected not to throw at the combine, leaving their NFL futures dependent on their performance at their pro day. While Bradford is expected to go very early in this year’s draft, scouts doubt whether Tebow can play quarterback at the next level, and thus he will have to have seriously changed his throwing technique in the three months or so since his last college game.
While some teams, such as the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steeleers, generally like to build themselves up during the draft, certain teams, like the Redksins, think that spending money in free agency is a wiser decision. Last year the Redskins signed Albert Haynesworth to a monster seven-year, $100 million contract, only to see him have his worst season since his rookie year. Last Friday marked the first day of free agency this year, and the Bears and Giants both made big splashes. Julius Peppers signed a contract with the Bears for six years and $91 million while the Giants made former Cardinal Rolle Antrel the highest paid safety in the league.
Only time will tell whether Peppers and Rolle can live up to the hype, while Haden who could be the next Darrelle Revis, regardless of how fast he runs in his underwear.