Reignited turbulence is rerouting cargo ships, resulting in longer routes.
A new study in the Environmental Research Letters journal, led by Concordia researchers, has discovered a causal link between the re-ignition of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and increased greenhouse gas emissions.
“Due to safety concerns, the world’s major shipping conglomerates have temporarily forsaken the route through the Suez Canal in favor of the longer circumnavigation via the Cape of Good Hope,” the study reports.
As military turbulence has overtaken and threatens to expand across the Levant, the Red Sea is no longer as viable an avenue for shipping and container vessels heading from Asia toward Europe.
According to the U.S. Naval Institute, dozens of ships have been subject to attacks since November 2023. The BBC reports that these attacks are largely led by the Houthis, a Yemeni rebel group, in response to the war between Israel and Hamas.
As a result, cargo volume passing through the Suez Canal has fallen to 60 per cent for merchant ships and as low as 33 per cent for container ships relative to peak periods.
Ships are instead heading south along the African continent’s perimeter. Some companies also started transferring cargo onto a second carrier at a port along the African coast before reaching the final European destination. The ports included in the study were Durban in South Africa and Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire, as these are major ports near the European Economic Area capable of accommodating large container ships.
Such reroutes result in longer times at sea, leading to greater fuel consumption and a greater volume of greenhouse gas emissions, ranging from 23 per cent to 75 per cent, compared to passing through the Suez Canal.
This chain of consequences has also produced a harmful environmental impact by circumventing the European Union’s (EU) cap-and-trade emissions fee system.
All boats moored on European coasts originating from beyond EU frontiers are taxed at 50 per cent of their total emissions. By transferring cargo onto a second ship mid-way through the voyage, first-leg ships for each voyage evade taxation entirely. This constitutes carbon leakage, which may become more rampant if the conflict persists.
The internal disruption, manifested as higher costs caused by the need to find alternate routes, already constitutes enough economic pressure for shipping companies.
Since transshipment costs result in lower expenses than compliance with EU emission fees, these companies are less inclined to urgently consider their environmental footprint. This lack of incentive to invest in green energy may have long-lasting impacts, the study concluded.
“The EU authorities could potentially enhance responsiveness to unforeseen circumstances by temporarily adjusting the carbon border mechanisms,” said He Peng, the leading researcher and doctoral student at Concordia. “This may involve granting emission exemptions for specific shipping routes or broadening the scope of compliance.”
The paper notes that the former option would result in plainly undermining the original objective of the carbon pricing system. Though the EU’s fourth phase of its Emissions Trading System (ETS) is still young, reform may have to come soon if the guiding intent of the ETS itself remains a priority.
“The direction of these decisions is likely contingent upon the authorities’ stance on managing maritime emissions,” said Peng.
Peng explained that, given that all regulations must be cleared by the European Parliament, Council, and Commission, it is unlikely that they will change for many months or even years.
