Americans and Canadians alike are worried about what Trump’s second term could mean for trade, immigration, and domestic politics in the near future.
On Nov. 5, a majority of Americans voted for Donald Trump to return to the White House as the 47th president of the United States.
Republicans will take control of the Senate and will more than likely retain their majority in the House of Representatives.
Trump’s second presidency and a Republican-led Congress could have major implications for Canada, given his campaign promises to hike tariffs up to 20 per cent on all imports into the U.S., to increase oil production, and to deport undocumented immigrants.
Mary Esteve, a professor in the department of English at Concordia University and a U.S. citizen, said she was very disappointed with the results but was not as shocked as she had been in 2016 when Trump pulled off an unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton.
Esteve shared her worry about a future where the Republican Party controls the Presidency, the Congress, and a majority of the Supreme Court justices are conservative.
“If the two houses in Congress go for Republicans, then it’s a really serious situation [with] no resistance [to Trump’s policies],” she said. “We’ll just see if his streak of retribution really gets animated. ”
American PhD student at McGill University Carlos Pérez Valle said he was scared and was re-evaluating his plans for the future. Some of his family members in the U.S. are undocumented, including a few who are recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) status, which protects those who were brought into the U.S. as children.
During his first presidency, Trump attempted to end DACA but was blocked by the Supreme Court on procedural grounds, leaving the door open for a future revocation.
“I’m fearful because it’s reminding me about what happened in 2016 when me and some of my family members were making plans in case they got deported back to Mexico,” said Pérez Valle. “It’s reigniting those fears.”
In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other government officials are worried that Trump would follow through on his campaign promise and impose tariffs on Canadian exports without respecting the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on free trade.
Moshe Lander, who teaches international trade at Concordia University, explained that such a move could have serious implications.
“If he’s now surrounded by yes-men rather than traditional old-guard Republicans who understand the value of free trade, then it could really turn into a mess for Canada,” said Lander.
Other than the automobile industry, which relies on a vast amount of goods going back and forth across the border, Trump could also target technology and financial services sectors, which could negatively impact Canadians and Canadian corporations, Lander said.
“If he decides that he’s going to be a vengeful president and [that] he’s going to go after [Democrat-led] states, a lot of what the blue states [produce] is technology and finance,” said Lander. “So, could we all of a sudden find that our iPhones are subjected to tariffs as well?”
Canadian banks like Toronto-Dominion Bank have recently expanded into the U.S. market. If Trump goes ahead with his protectionist policies, leading to disputes with Canada, these banks could be caught in the crossfire, Lander continued.
“So it’s not just our manufacturing sector, it’s also potentially our consumer goods sector that could find itself on the wrong side and whatever damage [Trump] inflicts,” Lander said. “There’s not a lot of recourse if the protections around the free trade agreement are not respected.”
While there is a sense of anxiety about the future, Pérez Valle is coping by cleaning up his social media and not engaging with those around whom he does not feel safe.
Esteve said she is happier to be living and working in Canada, given her own “liberal-progressive” political sensibilities.
“I really do like the more relaxed manner with which I can talk about politics,” she said. “So, in terms of my professional daily life, I’m a lot happier to be here.”
